FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THE GROSS ENROLMENT RATIO IN PRIMARY EDUCATION IN INDIA

Abstract

The Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan is a comprehensive and Integrated flagship programme of the Government of India aimed at Universalization of elementary education which came to effect in November 2000.The concept of Universalization implies education to all children up to the age of 14, that is completion of the upper primary level of education. The dissertation wishes to study the evolution of the GER component in primary education, the improvement of which is an objective of the scheme. An analysis and forecast of the gross enrolment of girls and total gross enrolment in primary education has been taken about through the course of this study. It looks at the developments and studies factors that have influenced the Gross Enrolment Ratio. Increasing the gross enrolment was one of the aims of the policy along with other factors. The study forecasts that the gross enrolment ratio will increase. The predictions realized on the basis of the model obtained show a continuous increase of GER values in the next years. The results obtained can be a good starting point for any study which has as a theme the establishment of personnel policies in the educational system. While increasing pupil teacher ratios have helped in improvements, percentage of aggregate expenditure on education remained around the same mark for all states. Apart from gross enrolment ratio, other factors relating to the quality of education should be studied. Further studies should take into account the very recent policy change of strengthening the SSA by using teacher related factors for quality improvements. The identification and improvements in factors relating to the quality of education in different regions of India can help in meeting the objectives of Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, the deadline to which has already passed. Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) is an innovative and integrated flagship programme launched by the Government of India during November 2000 to universalize elementary education. Universalization here means education for all children until age 14, which includes the upper primary level. This dissertation attempts to examine the evolution of Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) component in primary education since improving GER is one of the major objectives of the SSA programme. The present study analyses and predicts the girl’s gross enrolment and overall gross enrolment in primary education. During the span of this study, the trends and determinants of Gross Enrolment Ratio have been studied. It has been predicted that the gross enrolment ratio will also rise in the future. The future projections made through the realized model indicate that the value of GER will keep on increasing in the years to come. v The findings of this study may provide a firm base for any further study which concentrates on the formulation of personnel policies within the education system. Pupil-teacher ratios, although increasing, have played a positive part in improvement but the percentage of aggregate expenditure on education till date has shown more or less the same trend in all states. But, at the same time it should be kept in mind that besides the gross enrolment ratio, other considerations related to quality should also be examined. The future studies should consider the recent policy shift of strengthening the SSA by using teacher related factors to bring about improvement in quality. The identification of quality related factors and their improvement across different regions of India would help in achieving the goals of Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, even though the time schedule for its implementation has long been over. The present study reveals that although there has been progress in raising the gross enrolment ratios, especially of girls, yet further improvement is possible on the counts of resource mobilization and quality education. Moreover, the present study brings to the fore the relevance of regional differentials and the necessity of area specific interventions to tackle the problems unique to different regions of India. The identification of factors affecting the quality of education in specific regions would help in achieving the goals of Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan even though the time schedule for its implementation has long been over. On the whole, the present dissertation accentuates the need for continuous assessment and reformulation of the policies in tune with the emerging needs of the country. The findings and recommendations of this study may serve as a handy guide for the policy makers, educators and other stakeholders in their sincere efforts to provide equitable and quality education to all the children of India.