ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POPULATION HEALTH IN BRICS: A THRESHOLD ANALYSIS OF CANCER INCIDENCE AND INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSES

Abstract

This study examines the non-linear relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita) and population health (measured by cancer incidence) in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 1990 to 2023. Using Panel Threshold Regression Models (PTRM), the analysis identifies two GDP growth thresholds (6.47% and 7.31%) where the health impact of economic expansion shifts. Below 6.47% GDP growth, higher growth reduces cancer incidence, but this effect weakens beyond 7.31%, suggesting diminishing returns and potential overheating risks. Robust OLS and fixed-effects models confirm GDP’s significant but non-linear influence on health outcomes, with country-specific factors playing a marginal role. The findings highlight the need for growth-phase-specific health policies, emphasizing targeted investments during high-growth periods to mitigate adverse health effects. The study bridges gaps in literature by applying non-linear methods to BRICS and focusing on cancer as a growth-driven health challenge, offering actionable insights for sustainable development strategies.