DETERMINANTS OF AGRICULTURAL YIELD IN ASSAM: A DISTRICT-LEVEL REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Abstract

Tea cultivation in Assam is increasingly confronted with climate uncertainty and soil erosion. In this research, we investigate the nexus among climatic drivers (rainfall and temperature), soil health, and tea production in three of the most prominent tea-growing districts— Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, and Jorhat—over a decade (2010-2020). Based on multiple linear regression analysis with district dummy variables, we explored 33 observations to ascertain the effect of environmental determinants on tea productivity. Results show that soil quality is the strongest predictor of yield, then temperature. Rainfall had minimal effect. Jorhat district produced significantly higher yields compared to the base district Dibrugarh, while Tinsukia produced non-significant differences. The model predicts 95.8% of yield variance, indicating strong predictive power. These results offer key information for climate-resilient tea cultivation practices and emphasize the utmost significance of soil management in maintaining tea productivity under climate change.