LIBERALISATION IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE: A STUDY OF FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA AFTER 2001

Abstract

This thesis, titled ”Liberalisation in Agricultural Trade: A Study of Food Security in India after 2001,” examines the impacts of trade liberalisation on food security in India through three objectives: analyzing food price volatility, evaluating agri cultural trade’s impact on farm income, and assessing its effect on food availability. Food price volatility is studied using monthly indices (2013–2022) via ARCH and GARCH models. Volatility persists in cereals, oils, and pulses, contradicting the view that liberalisation stabilizes prices. The ARDL approach (1991–2021) reveals a long-run positive relationship between farm income (Agricultural GDP), exports, fertilizer use, and crop yield, with imports having no significant long-term effect. In the short run, imports and fertilizer use impact farm income. Dietary Energy Supply (DES) is used to assess food availability, showing strong long-term benefits from trade liberalisation, though short-term challenges persist. The study highlights the varied impacts of trade liberalisation on food prices, farm income, and food availability, emphasizing the need for nuanced agricultural policies to maximize benefits and address challenges.