ANALYSIS OF WHEAT MODAL PRICES AND DATA EFFICIENCY IN UTTAR PRADESH'S MANDIS OVER TWO YEARS

Abstract

This research provides a detailed analysis of wheat price trends and data reporting practices in Uttar Pradesh's mandis over the past two years, identifying critical insights, challenges, and opportunities for market enhancement. The study reveals distinct seasonal patterns in wheat prices, with stability or slight increases post-harvest, an upward trend from August onwards, and a peak in February. Data reporting inconsistencies were a major issue, with only 46% of mandis consistently reporting data for more than 250 days annually. The poorest performing mandis reported data on as few as 10 days annually, indicating a significant need for improved data collection practices. While minimum support price (MSP) violations were present, they were not widespread. Thirty-one mandis experienced prices falling below the MSP, but only nine had violations for more than 10 days. Notably, Uttaripura and Salon had prolonged violations, raising concerns about data accuracy and market practices. The analysis also identified top-performing markets, with Allahabad and Kanpur standing out based on average yearly modal prices. Monthly performances by Firozabad and Kanpur (Grain) further highlighted the dynamic nature of market performance across different times and regions. However, price data from Dhanura and Mehrauni consistently showed inaccuracies, indicating potential issues with data accuracy. The research proposes several recommendations to enhance market efficiency, transparency, and stability. These include improving data reporting practices, enhancing mandi infrastructure and resources, implementing predictive analytics for price stability, facilitating market transparency and accessibility, strengthening policy frameworks, monitoring and addressing price anomalies, and supporting continuous improvement and research. Addressing these challenges and implementing the proposed recommendations can significantly benefit farmers, traders, and policymakers, ensuring better market outcomes and promoting sustainable agricultural growth. Continuous advancements in data practices, infrastructure, and policy frameworks are essential for adapting to evolving market dynamics and supporting the long-term development of the agricultural sector.