MODELLING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT-POLLINATOR MUTUALISMS AND ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to the intricate dynamics of plant-pollinator interactions, with potential implications for ecosystem resilience. This study investigates the impact of phenological mismatches discrepancies in the timing of life cycle events-between plants and pollinators on the stability and sustainability of ecosystems. We utilize a mathematical model based on the framework proposed by Fagan et al. (2014). The model is parameterized using historical phenological data for butterfly species Vanessa atalanta and plant species Syringa vulgaris. Through a series of simulations, we investigate the dynamics of pollinator and plant populations under decreasing visitation and pollination rates. The results reveal that as these rates decline, significant changes occur in the population dynamics. These findings highlight the critical role of synchrony in plant-pollinator interactions for ecosystem resilience. Phenological mismatches driven by climate change can lead to reduced pollinator services and compromised plant reproduction, ultimately affecting ecosystem functions. The study underscores the need for adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate-induced phenological shifts on plant-pollinator mutualisms. Future research should aim to incorporate multi-species interaction, spatial variability, and socio economic factors to develop more comprehensive models of ecosystem resilience in a changing climate. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a detailed mathematical analysis of plant-pollinator dynamics under climate change scenarios, offering critical insights into the mechanisms driving ecosystem resilience. It emphasizes the need for an integrated approach to conservation that considers the complex interplay between biological, environmental, and socio-economic factors.