COVID-19 USING NUMERICAL METHOD

Abstract

The SIR model is used to discuss the spread of the covid-19 epidemic in the Indian state of Maharashtra and its eventual end. Here we have examined about the spread of Coronavirus pandemic in extraordinary profundity utilizing Runge-kutta fourth-order method. The Runge kutta fourth-order method is a solving of the non-linear ordinary differential. We have used the data of covid-19 Outbreak of state Maharashtra on 29 April, 2021. The total population of Maharashtra is 122153000, according to this data. For the initial stage of experimental purposes, we used 113814181 susceptible cases, 4539553 infectious cases, and 3799266 recovered cases. The SIR model was used to analyse data from a wide range of infectious diseases. As a result, several scientists and researchers have thoroughly tested this model for infectious diseases. As a result of the research and simulation of this proposed covid-19 model using data on the number of covid-19 outbreak cases in state Maharashtra of India, show that the covid-19 epidemic infection cases rise for a period of time after the outbreak decreases, and then the covid-19 outbreak ends in Maharashtra cases. The model's findings also show that the Runge-kutta fourth-order method is used for forecast and avoid the covid-19 outbreak in India's Maharashtra state. Finally, we determine that the outbreak of the covid-19 epidemic in Maharashtra will peak on 11 May 2021, after which it will progress steadily and will likely end in the fourth week of October 2021.