ANALYSIS OF THE PARTICULATE MATTER IN DELHI AND FORECASTING USING SARIMA MODEL

Abstract

A serious threat to public health is posed by air pollution, a problem that is spreading around the world. Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world, with PM levels frequently exceeding safe limits. This study aims to analyze the levels of PM in Delhi from January 2018 to April 2023, with a focus on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. The study uses visualizations of PM concentrations to provide a clear picture of the severity of air pollution in Delhi. In addition, the study examines meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed and humidity, using trend and seasonal analyses to identify potential contributing factors to PM levels. It includes a prediction component focused specifically on PM2.5 concentrations in Delhi using the SARIMA method. By developing a forecasting model and evaluating it using the RMSE metric, this study improves upon existing forecasting accuracy. The results highlight the superior performance of the SARIMA model compared to the Facebook Prophet model, suggesting the potential for more accurate and reliable air pollution forecasting models. This research underscores the urgent need for continued research and intervention efforts to address the adverse effects of air pollution in Delhi and other polluted cities worldwide. The persistently high levels of PM in Delhi are a major public health concern, with serious implications for the well-being of residents. Advanced modelling techniques, exemplified by the SARIMA model employed in this study, play an essential role in predicting pollution levels and informing the development of effective techniques.