EFFECTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS ON JOBS

Abstract

Technological change is a key driver of economic growth. However, the invention, diffusion and effective use of new technology are in turn likely to be influenced by other factors, including economic conditions, institutions, and social conditions. For example, the adoption of labor saving technology in the first industrial revolution may have been driven by the specific economic conditions of 18th century. Moreover, sociological research has shown that patterns of work organization vary across countries even between establishments that use very similar technologies. It is broadly accepted that the first industrial revolution eventually led to improving standards of living in society and in particular for the working class, but there is evidence to suggest that it took some time for these improvements to materialize. In the context of the first industrial revolution, technological change was also linked to changes in the nature of work: the mechanization of textile production involved work moving from artisans’ homes to the factories, from rural to urban areas, and from independent work often filling downtime in rural work to full-time, predictable work in a hierarchical structure. Recent automation does not seem to have led to overall decline in employment levels but there have been income losses for low-educated workers employed in the manufacturing sector. Employment losses in manufacturing have typically been compensated by increasing employment in services, leading to stable or growing overall employment levels. It is not clear from the literature included in this review whether the aggregate figures conceal employment losses for specific demographics and how the new service jobs compare to the manufacturing jobs lost in terms of opportunities for progression, security, quality of working environment. In this review, we examine evidence from a wide a range of disciplines to inform the discussion on the impact of AI on work. The report: • Draws insights from earlier periods of technological change and the more recent evidence on the impact of digital technology • Presents what claims have been made about the potential consequences of AI for the future of work, and • Analyses why and how such claims have been made with a focus on which frameworks have been used, and what assumptions (implicit or explicit) any conclusions rest on.