PREDICTING POTENTIAL HOTSPOT FOR ILLICIT ACTIVITIES AND FORECASTING CRIME RATE USING MACHINE

Abstract

Crime is the biggest threat to the dream of a peaceful and safe society. Data analysis has a significant role in overcoming many issues related to the past and predicting future scenario based on past data. These advancements of these technologies can be taken into account for analyzing crime in a region. These will result in tracking the crime events and also helps the police department to recognize the hotspots, the structure and the occurrence of crime. The exploratory analysis and data mining is the important part of this system since it helps to store and use the data to recognize the hotspots and will help the security and police agencies to deploy their force and patrolling vehicles in crime areas and manage their resources efficiently to the prevent crime incidence, maintain law and order and ensures safety of the citizens. In this project I will be using Los Angeles crime data set and regression models, ARIMA, SARIMAX, Facebook prophet are used for forecasting and in the end a comparison will be made to see which model works best to predict the occurrence of a crime incidence