ESTIMATION OF VEHICULAR POLUTION LOAD IN DELHI AND IT’S CONTROL STRATEGIES

Abstract

Delhi is a rapidly expanding mega city. Population and vehicle use continue to expand, with vehicles being the principal source of severe air pollution. And yet, vehicle ownership is still fraction of that in industrialized countries. In this work, we attempt to untangle the complexities of Delhi's transport sector, exploring what kind of a future is likely and how it might be altered. We analyzed historical data, estimated vehicle pollution load, and examined strategies to control vehicle pollution. One scenario representing a “business-as-usual” trajectory – is an extrapolation of present trends in Delhi, modified to reflect existing policies and commitments. This scenario results in dramatic increases in vehicle use, translating to about a fourfold increase in transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2000 and 2020. The second scenario is premised on strong political and institutional leadership to enhance the economic, social, and environmental performance of Delhi's transportation system. Car use drops, and transit and bike use increase, there is major changes in the public transport system with the introduction of metro rail phase I and II. , Govt. is also planning to introduce High Capacity Buses and Mono rail. With the huge investment on road infrastructure and new technology development the pollution level is likely to come down. But even with this aggressive shift toward more environmental friendly transportation, GHG emissions may be more than double in the 20-year period. We observe that under any plausible scenario greenhouse gases will soar, but that the lower greenhouse gas path leads to far fewer emissions and much lower transport and energy costs.