MODELLING OF THE KAYA IDENTITY CLIMATE MODEL

Abstract

Excessive emission of carbon has emerged as the single most dangerous threat in recent times towards the earth’s environment and well being. A fair bit of damage has already been caused to the environmental ecology and a continuous deterioration is being seen in the climatic behaviour all over the world. A lot of scientific research has being going to study these emissions effectively which will help in reducing its concentration in the future without hampering the fast economic advancements going on. Through this thesis, I intend to predict the carbon emissions as carbon dioxide by the end of this century with the help of a carbon emission climate model known as the Kaya Identity which states that the emissions can be predicted on the basis of four factors namely population, gross domestic poduct per capita, energy and carbon intensities. I have also tried to provide a stabilization pathway to limit the carbon dioxide concentrations to values around 450 parts per million, which, otherwise is predicted to reach far greater values. The best fit values of all the four individual parameters have also been arrived at. Accurate predictions can lay the groundwork for future carbon policies across the globe which coupled with effective implementation can go a long way in deciding the environmental health of planet earth.