http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/16858 2026-05-21T01:02:19Z http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/22736 Title: IMPACT OF THE INDIA-JAPAN COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT ON BILATERAL TRADE DYNAMICS: A STUDY OF EXPORTS, IMPORTS, AND FDI INFLOWS Authors: KUMAR, MOHIT; Pal, Aishani (SUPERVISOR) Abstract: Globalization has led to an era where international trade agreements are crucial in shaping economic landscapes. Among these agreements, the India-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2011, stands as a significant bilateral trade accord aimed at enhancing economic cooperation and fostering mutual growth. This thesis examines the impact of the India-Japan CEPA on bilateral trade dynamics, focusing on exports, imports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows between the two countries. By employing a mixed-methods approach, this study combines quantitative analysis with qualitative insights to offer a comprehensive understanding of the CEPA's economic implications. The primary objective of this research is to assess how the CEPA has influenced trade flows between India and Japan over the past decade. This is achieved by analysing trade data from 1991 to 2020, sourced from reputable databases such as the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) and the World Bank Open Data. The study focuses on key variables including exports from India to Japan, imports from Japan to India, trade balance, GDP, inflation rates, and exchange rates. Additionally, data on FDI inflows is obtained from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), providing a holistic view of economic interactions between the two nations. The research begins with a detailed descriptive analysis of the CEPA, outlining its provisions and intended objectives. This foundational understanding is crucial for contextualizing the subsequent data analysis. The descriptive analysis reveals significant shifts in trade patterns post-CEPA, highlighting the agreement's immediate and long-term effects on bilateral trade. Notably, the CEPA aimed to reduce tariffs, eliminate non-tariff barriers, and enhance market access across various sectors, thereby creating a conducive environment for increased trade and investment. To quantify the impact of CEPA, the study employs regression analysis, using exports and imports as dependent variables and incorporating independent variables such as GDP, inflation rates, exchange rates, and a dummy variable representing the post-CEPA period. The regression model is meticulously designed to isolate the effect of CEPA from other macroeconomic factors, ensuring a robust and accurate assessment of the agreement's impact. Diagnostic tests for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and normality of residuals are conducted to validate the regression results, adding credibility to the findings. The regression analysis yields compelling insights into the CEPA's impact on trade flows. For exports, the model reveals that a unit increase in lagged exports results in a 0.1656 unit increase in logged exports, indicating a strong positive relationship. The post-CEPA variable, though marginally significant, suggests a negative effect on logged exports post-CEPA, highlighting potential challenges in realizing the agreement's full benefits. The analysis also shows that India's GDP positively influences exports, underscoring the importance of domestic economic growth in enhancing trade performance. Conversely, inflation rates in India and Japan do not exhibit significant impacts, suggesting that trade dynamics are influenced more by structural factors than by short-term economic fluctuations. vi The import model presents a slightly different picture. The coefficient for the post-CEPA variable is positive but not significant, indicating that the agreement has not had a substantial impact on imports from Japan. This finding suggests that while the CEPA has facilitated increased exports from India, it has not significantly altered the import landscape. The positive coefficients for the variable used for India’s GDP and the variables used for Japan’s GDP, both significant, underscore the role of economic growth in driving bilateral trade. The results highlight the complexity of trade dynamics and the need for continuous policy adjustments to maximize the benefits of trade agreements. The findings from both models underscore the nuanced impact of the CEPA on bilateral trade. While the agreement has positively influenced exports, the anticipated benefits in terms of imports remain elusive. These results prompt a deeper examination of the underlying factors, including non-tariff barriers, regulatory challenges, and sector-specific dynamics that may be inhibiting the full realization of CEPA's potential. The analysis also points to the importance of sustained economic growth and structural reforms in both countries to enhance trade performance. The implications of these findings are multifaceted. Economically, the CEPA has demonstrated the potential to enhance trade between India and Japan, albeit with varying degrees of success across different sectors. The agreement's positive impact on exports underscores the importance of market access and tariff reductions in driving trade growth. However, the lack of a significant impact on imports calls for a re-evaluation of non-tariff barriers and regulatory frameworks that may be hindering trade. Addressing these challenges is crucial for creating a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship. Politically, the CEPA's implementation highlights the complex interplay between domestic and international factors in shaping trade policy. The agreement's formation and execution were influenced by the strategic interests and economic priorities of both countries, reflecting the broader geopolitical context. In conclusion, this thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the India-Japan CEPA, offering valuable insights into its economic impacts and policy implications. The findings underscore the significant, albeit nuanced, benefits of the agreement in enhancing trade flows and fostering economic collaboration. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of bilateral trade agreements, offering lessons for policymakers and stakeholders involved in designing and implementing FTAs. By highlighting the successes and challenges of the IndiaJapan CEPA, this research provides a foundation for future studies and policy initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth through international trade. This thesis underscores the importance of rigorous empirical analysis in evaluating the impact of trade agreements. The mixed-methods approach employed in this study provides a robust framework for assessing the multifaceted effects of CEPA, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative insights. The findings highlight the critical role of economic growth, market access, and regulatory frameworks in shaping trade dynamics, offering practical recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of trade agreements. As globalization continues to evolve, this research underscores the need for adaptive and forward-looking trade policies that can navigate the complexities of international trade and promote shared prosperity. 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/22714 Title: PERCEPTION OF CUSTOMERS ON ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA Authors: KUMAR, SUMIT; Malhotra, Deepali (SUPERVISOR) Abstract: Electric vehicles are the mode of transportation of the future in India. To progressively introduce electric vehicles to the Indian market, the government is working to create laws. The goal of the government is to fully electrify India's transport system by 2030. The significant research project "Perception of Customers on Electric Vehicles in India" aims to provide insight into the current and future of the electric vehicle market in India in light of the aforementioned context. The projected sales for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are covered in this project, as well as the electric car sales in India in 2021 and 2022. In order to realize the nation's aim of clean mobility, it also sheds light on the rate at which India's market for electric vehicles is growing year after year. To find patterns in the upcoming sales of electric vehicles in India, we will gather data from both primary and secondary sources. We'll also look at the findings from a study of electric vehicle sales data and government programmes intended to encourage the manufacture and sale of electric vehicles in India. On the basis of these data, we will also make a few suggestions on how to increase the sales of electric vehicles in India. 2024-12-01T00:00:00Z http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/22713 Title: ENERGY PRICE SHOCKS AND MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE IN INDIA: PRE AND POST INFLATION TARGETING APPROACH Authors: GARIMA Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic interplay between crude oil price shocks and short- term interest rates in India, emphasizing the effects of inflation targeting (IT) regime implemented in 2016. Considering India’s position as a significant importer of crude oil, it is essential to comprehend the monetary policy reaction to changes in energy prices, particularly regarding developing institutional frameworks. The study utilizes time-series data on monthly-basis spanning from 2011 to 2024 and applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationships between crude oil prices and interest rate proxies, such as the 91-day Treasury bill rate and the Call Money rate. Two model specifications are employed to investigate structural changes in policy responsiveness. The first estimate of the relationship uses the full sample and includes an interaction term between crude oil prices and an IT regime dummy to account for shifts occurring after 2016. The second model splits the sample into periods before and after IT, estimating distinct regressions for each. The study indicates that after inflation targeting was adopted, interest rates became significantly less sensitive to shocks in crude oil prices. The pooled model's notable and adverse interaction term indicates a muted policy reaction following the IT, whereas the post-IT model reveals that oil prices have an insignificant effect on interest rates, signifying a structural change in the monetary policy rule. The results indicate that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has embraced a framework that is more forward- looking and driven by expectations, with a less aggressive response to temporary supply-side shocks. According to the paper’s conclusion, inflation targeting has played a role in establishing a more stable monetary policy stance in India that emphasizes credibility. 2025-06-01T00:00:00Z http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/22712 Title: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR ON INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN INDIA Authors: MEHDIRATTA, TANISHAA Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine war brought a wave of economic uncertainty, prompting questions around how firms respond and how markets react to such geopolitical disruptions. While past research has mostly focused on country-level effects, there’s less work on how individual firms’ communication during crises affects investor behaviour. This study analyses how 81 NSE-listed Indian firms across five major sectors responded to the Russia-Ukraine war through their earnings calls, and how the stock market interpreted these disclosures. Using earnings call transcripts from February 24 to June 15, 2022, firms that explicitly referenced the war were classified as the treatment group, while those that did not formed the control group. We employ an event study methodology to compute cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and conduct textual analysis to derive sentiment scores and an uncertainty indicator. We find that treatment firms in the Oil and Gas and Energy sectors experienced significantly higher CARs vis-à-vis their sectoral control groups, whereas Auto, FMCG, and Metal firms saw significantly lower CARs vis-à-vis their respective control groups. While sentiment analysis suggested that sentiment scores had no statistical effect on CAR differentials, uncertainty-related language had a positive and significant association overall, though with negative effects in consumer-facing sectors. These findings offer insights into investor interpretation of firm narratives during geopolitical crises. 2025-06-01T00:00:00Z